Donald Trump's Ukrainian Peace Proposal Represents a Gift to Putin

For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm position on Ukraine. After making warnings of "severe consequences" last August in case Russia's president persisted obstructing peace negotiations, Trump ultimately imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

This proposal would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in peril. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the plan in reality weaken that same independence. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like giving Putin a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not simply about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the responsible government that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Border Surrenders

While freezing in position the currently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to give up the entire Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in more than a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that are a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these positions, leaving Russian forces a clear path to the capital should he later choose to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed conflict easier for Russia, the plan would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its military from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should anyone believe Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western protection assurances. Although the initiative threatens a "strong unified military response" if Russia resume its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The plan would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the reassurance force, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, such as Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, an action they have {not